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IMC Study: Eurovision Voting

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Eurovision voting follows patterns that are embedded in broader geopolitical, historical and economic networks.

A recent study by IMC Krems University of Applied Sciences provides new empirical insights into voting behaviour in the Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) and demonstrates that structural factors play a decisive role in shaping the vote.

The analysis shows that geographical proximity, economic interconnections and historical ties influence voting behaviour far more strongly than political conflicts or diaspora effects.

For this study, the research team led by Alina M. Schoenberg, Dimitrios G. Ierapetritis, Chiara Foramitti and Christopher Schwand examined the allocation of points in the ESC between 1995 and 2019 using an economic gravity model.
 

(c) ORF; The stage for the 70th Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna

Key findings

A central finding of the study is that geographical and cultural proximity between countries remains crucial, with shorter physical distance significantly increasing the likelihood of awarding higher points.

The analysis also suggests that historical interconnections lead to long-term cultural familiarity, often reinforced by overlapping linguistic areas or intensive media exchange, which in turn has a positive effect on the allocation of points.

In addition to geographical and historical aspects, economic interdependencies also play a significant role, with stronger bilateral trade measurably associated with higher scores.

The economic strength of participating nations affects voting asymmetrically. Countries with a higher gross domestic product (GDP) receive more points on average, likely due to greater investment in the quality and visibility of their entries, while at the same time tending to distribute their votes more broadly across the field.

Limited role of political factors

While diaspora effects are observable, they are not statistically significant. Diplomatic tensions likewise show no lasting impact on voting behaviour. Political conflicts therefore appear to be isolated cases rather than a structural pattern.

Relevance for ESC 2026 in Austria

The findings underline the ESC as a reflection of European interconnectedness beyond music. For the hosting of the contest in Austria in 2026, the study provides a well-founded basis for a more nuanced view of commonly held narratives about “bloc voting”.

“Our results show that Eurovision voting is neither random nor conspiratorial, but rather an insightful reflection of European relationships,” say Alina M. Schoenberg and Christopher Schwand.

About the study

The study “Economic and Political Dependencies in Cultural Voting: A Gravity Model Analysis of Eurovision” was published in the Romanian Journal of Regional Science and analyses 25 years of bilateral voting relationships.

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